Value Betting

The two most crucial factors for genuine professional punters when deciding which horses to back at the track are Race Day Fitness & Odds; the selection process consists of eliminating runners showing negative signs and then playing the odds on the remainder, they often back a number of runners in the same race. Alternative methods can be used when betting off-track. Serious players would regard handicapping as a novel way to try making a profit because racehorses are unable to maintain the same fitness level in all races, and the formbook cannot foresee the wellbeing of a horse on race days, so analysing previous performances can only provide bettors and odds compilers with a rough guide. Having always treated betting as a potential way of making money rather than a form of entertainment, all bets are investments and a return is expected over a given number of transactions. It is a business just like any other business with profit being the objective. Bettors who think they can win in the long term by forcing profits with wagering systems or by attempting to pick winners with no regard to price could be pushing their luck. Any selection processes must incorporate an element which can identify value in the price. (Full details in book) Copyright Ron Loftus.

• (UPDATED 2014) Finding an Edge specializes in advanced methods to identify Value Bets on Horse Racing Markets and is essential reading for those who aspire to make their betting pay; Most of the processes can also be applied to other betting related events. • Professional betting methods explained in detail; Bookmakers make a profit by loading the odds in their favour and bettors can employ similar tactics. The only way to win in the long term is to Back above true odds or Lay below true odds so Price is the most important factor and Finding an Edge includes detailed procedures that show readers how to swing the odds in their favour and how to calculate stakes that are proportional to price & betting bank. • Written by Ron Loftus, a full time professional who has been a successful backer with the bookmakers for the last two decades and has proven to be just as successful on the betting exchanges since there inception. • On-Course Strategies (Track Betting) • Identify profitable Each Way Bets (Win & Place) • Proportional Staking & Betting Bank Management • Betting In-Play • Trading • Convert bookmaker Win odds into approximate True Win & True Place prices • Using Timeframes to identify underpriced Lays • Beating the SP, Backers Book, Hedging, Backing etc • Plus Lots More. CONTENT 9 Foreword-11 Introduction-13 The Beginning-21 It’s a Complicated Business-27 Beating the Starting Price-31 Using Timeframes to Identify Value-35 Identify Lay Prices Using Timeframes-36 Calculating Win Market Maximum Lay Prices-40 Calculating Place Market Maximum Lay Prices-43 Identify Back Prices using Timeframes-44 Calculating Win Market Minimum Back Prices-47 Calculating Place Market Minimum Back Prices-49 Summary of Timeframes-52 Staking Plans/Wagering Systems-53 Proportional Staking & Betting Bank-56 Working out a Book-59 Converting Bookmaker Win Prices Into approximate True Win Prices-65 Converting Bookmaker Win Prices Into approximate True Place Prices (3 Places)-73 Converting Betting Exchange Win Prices Into Approximate True Place Prices (2 Places)-77 Calculating Each Way Value-94 Hedging Each Way Bets in Place Market-97 On-Course Strategies-109 Thing to look out for-111 Bookmakers or Betting Exchanges-115 Backers Book-118 Trading-124 Betting In-Play-125 Greening Up-128 Skimming-131 Scalping-131 Synopsis-138 Quotations